|
Impact ![]()
(Source: CSO, PersonalFN Research)
After the data released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) revealed a robust growth in the agriculture output from 0.4% (a year before) to 5.4%, the Government now expects the Indian economy to expand by 8.6% in this fiscal year.
Interestingly the manufacturing growth however is projected to be same as last year at 8.8%. Also the services sector growth is seen slipping marginally to 9.6% from 10.1% a year ago, largely because of a slower rise in government spending.
Reacting to these growth estimates, Finance Minister - Mr. Pranab Mukherjee said, "An 8.6% growth is quite encouraging despite all these difficulties." However he remained cautious about the fact that inflation and widening trade deficit pose a threat. Chief economic advisor - Mr. Kaushik Basu on the other hand dismissed inflation concerns by saying, "I really don't' see inflation disrupting the growth process. We have been concerned about inflation but I really feel that the number we have got on Monday is going to dampen inflationary expectation. So I am not seeing that (inflation) could jeopardise the growth story."
In our opinion the growth estimate of 8.6% belies the fears of a sharp slowdown in the second half of the year. But nonetheless we believe that such growth estimates, may encourage the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to increase policy rates further in order to tame inflationary situation caused by rising prices of commodities (especially onions) and crude oil. Moreover, this in turn in our opinion may have a negative impact of the markets; but if assessed from a valuation perspective, they would appear luring, and hence in our opinion this would be a good time to buy.
Hence, we believe that investors' should take advantage of this and keep on investing in the markets through the SIP route offered by mutual funds; as they would provide you investors the advantage of rupee-cost averaging along with compounding.
|
|
Impact ![]()
With the Budget 2011 just seventeen day from now, the insurance industry is putting their wish-list to the Government for the life insurance products. They (insurance companies) have suggested that a separate limit for deductions under Section 80C of the Income Tax Act should be conferred for long-term saving instruments like life insurance and also make it eligible for Exempt Exempt Exempt (EEE) status, thus ensuring that maturity proceeds are tax free.
The insurers are of the opinion that the Direct Tax Code is going to change the way individuals invest, and hence are asking for a separate limit for life insurance. At present, the limit stands at Rs 50,000 including tuition fee and health insurance. Moreover, the insurers are also demanding a carry-forward of losses from the present 8 years to 12 years, as most of them find it difficult to break-even even after 10 years. However it is the tenure of investments that should be incentivised and not the instrument.
In our opinion the Budget 2011 would be a step closer to the DTC (especially on the DTC front) and would also be a populist one, as the Congress Government would try to save its political image, in a scenario where we (India) are facing manifold macroeconomic issues and political turmoil as the scams stories are unfolding. However, the populist measure if adopted, would instil a challenge on the Government to manage its fiscal deficit target(s).
As far the insurers demand for conferring a separate limit for life insurance products is concerned, in our opinion it appears unlikely to happen. The Government on the other hand as a measure to move a step closer to DTC, may increase the limit under section 80C, from the present Rs 1 lakh to Rs 1.5 lakh, thereby displaying their populist emotions |
Impact ![]()
The new Index of Industrial Production (IIP) promises to be more realistic than its older version as a Government Panel has proposed more weight for industries such as textiles, tobacco, food & beverages and apparels in the IIP to give true representation to the contribution made by the unorganised sector, which accounts for more than 90% of the country's workforce. The Panel has also suggested changes in the way relative weight of an item is computed in the IIP.
In its report, the panel has termed the new index "a close reflection of the current industrial scenario". The suggestions made by the panel would lead to a sharp increase in the weight of food products, beverages and textiles in the IIP.
Thus the weight of food products and beverages in the index will rise to 72.76% from 55.32% proposed initially, while that of textiles will increase to 61.64% from 48.9%. The new IIP will go to a committee of secretaries before its rollout in the fiscal year.
We believe that the new IIP if implemented in the way it is proposed will do away with the volatility in the current IIP (as seen in the last year during the month of August 2010 where the IIP nosedived from 15.0% in July 2010 to 6.9%; a similar situation was again witnessed in the month of October 2010 wherein the IIP jumped to 11.29% from just 4.4% in September 2010) and will give a holistic view of the economy.
|
|
Free Tax Planning Guide 2011
Dear Reader, we have just released our new edition of Tax Planning guide - 2011 which will help you in planning for your taxes in advance. This guide is available absolutely free of cost.
Claim your FREE copy today!
|
|
| Weekly Facts |
| |
Close |
Change |
%Change |
| BSE Sensex* |
17728.61 |
(279.5)![]() |
-1.55% |
| Re/US$ |
45.73 |
(0.1)![]() |
-0.26% |
Gold /10g |
20,230.00 |
405.0 ![]() |
2.04% |
| Crude ($/barrel) |
101.74 |
(0.3)![]() |
-0.32% |
| FD Rates (1-Yr) |
7.00% - 8.75% |
Weekly change as on February 10, 2011
*BSE Sensex as on February 11, 2011
|
|
In this issue
|
In an interview with DNA Money, Mr. Maneesh Dangi - Head of Fixed Income, Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund shared his views on the impact of Egypt crisis on India, policy rate hikes and ways to tackle inflation.
The Egyptian crisis, according to Mr. Dangi will not lead to any "domino effect" across the region, though some contagion is inevitable. However, he cautions that a big macro effect to India may only come if the present crisis spreads in Saudi Arabia or other GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries; and that, in turn in his view leads to substantially higher oil prices caused by serious disruption to production elsewhere in the region or the traffic through the Suez Canal.
On the policy rates front, Mr. Dangi expects them to move by another 100 basis points (bps) in this calendar year and mostly at the run rate of 25 bps every policy.
He also affirms to the fact inflation is a big problem in India. According to him the major contributories to the spiralling inflation are expansionary government policies and poor policy framework to encourage capital investments. In his view the best way to handle inflation is to improve ‘ease to do business' standards, avoid policy flip-flops; contain fiscal profligacy and build solid education and healthcare infrastructure to unlock demographic dividends. All these measures, he believes will improve supply side in the long term. |
Domino Effect: Repercussion of an act or event under which every associated or connected entity is affected to a more or less the same degree
(Source: Business Dictionary)
|
- HDFC Mutual Fund launched a first of its kind - HDFC Debt Fund for Cancer Cure. This is a unique debt mutual fund which will support needy cancer patients by providing donations to the Indian Cancer Society. The dividend earned under the three-year close-ended capital protection income scheme will be donated to the Indian Cancer Society. The donations made by the unit holders out of the dividend declared by the scheme to the approved trust are exempted from income tax under section 80G of the Income Tax Act.
HDFC's Chairman - Mr. Deepak Parekh said, "At an individual level, people want to give back to society but do not know where to go. A doctor serves society by treating patients free, we will use our distribution network to get good subscriptions for the scheme and help the cause."
- Reliance Mutual Fund launched Gold Savings Fund - a first of its kind investment scheme focused on gold. The new fund does not require subscribers to have a demat account unlike Gold ETFs where a demat account is compulsory and also offers investors' option to invest as little as Rs 100 per month.
Reliance Gold Savings Fund will invest in units of Reliance Gold ETF to the extent of at least 95% of the corpus size, and becomes a fund of funds which is first in its kind in India. The fund seeks to make the investment in gold in a more convenient manner by allowing investment through systematic investment and transfer plans. The fund focuses on providing the returns as provided by Reliance ETF which invests 99.5% of its portfolio in bullion.
|
|
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
"Before you can really start setting financial goals, you need to determine where you stand financially."
- David Bach
|
|
This Week's Poll !!!
************
Are you investing in the falling markets currently?
To Vote Now!
|
|