The losses suffered by the Democratic Party in the US mid-term elections were fully expected. Though the Party has hung on narrowly to its lead in the Senate, the hefty losses in the Congress means that the Republicans are now in power in the country and will drive the agenda. Conversely, it means that the President will find all his proposals stalled, leading to a possible legislative gridlock of the kind that was seen during President Clinton’s administration. This in turn suggests that he will be a weaker President, at a time when the country’s economy is hurting, the Afghanistan war has still some time to go and unemployment has touched record levels in recent times.
The President now has to look for some quick and effective solutions and his India trip is part of the larger plan to get the US economy going. The noise on outsourcing apart, America needs countries like India and China to buy more of its goods and allow its businesses access. China of course is sitting on a lot of American debt so it has to be appeased, but India too can open up and allow US companies to come in, especially in newly emerging areas like nuclear energy.
Because America needs Pakistan to allow its troops access into Afghanistan and also because of Washington’s long standing relationship with Islamabad, President Obama will not be in any position to do anyting that offends our neighbour. But there will be the usual soothing words without any major commitment from the US side.
Despite the concern that our relations with the US under Obama are not as warm as they were under George W Bush, however, there is an air of opitimistic expectation about this visit, which our and their bureaucrats have very proudly informed is the longest visit abroad of his presidency. The (Indian) media is full of stories and speculation, the commentators are out in full cry pondering over what the outcome will be and chief ministers are lining up to shake his hand. In Mumbai, the streets are being repaved, traffic lights and road dividers are getting a new coat of paint and hardened criminals are being kept in jail to prevent any mischief. The security is slowly building up and sites like the Taj Mahal Hotel, where he is staying are like a fortress already.
But while we here are all agog over this visit, what could be going on in Obama’s mind (apart from his electoral loss)? Is he too looking forward to seeing his country’s newest pal on the block, the economic power in the making whose kids are studying away and stealing the jobs that should go to his country’s kids and which is standing outside the United Nations waiting to be invited into the sanctum sanctorum of the Security Council?
Perhaps he is. He knows, or ought to know that though Bush was popular with the Indian government, he was not personally liked by large numbers of Indians who were angry about the war in Iraq and similarly, while the Indian government is wary of Obama, the people of his country like and love him. But surely the loss of the Congress would be weighing on him. The pundits have already begun to speculate how this loss and is falling popularity will impact on his chances of getting the nomination for another term.
In India he can hope to get a good reception, but here too he will be asked some tough questions. His trip has a strong business angle but the sore points remain. Manmohan Singh may or may not sing love songs to him as he did to Bush, but he is going to want to know what India will get in return for ordering billions of dollars worth of arms from the US. For example, India wants the ban on dual-use technology lifted. Will that happen and how far with the US go on it? And of course there is the question of aid to Pakistan and how that country can be made to cease its cross border terrorism. These are inconvenient issues that won’t be covered up by all the buzzwords and sweet nothings that will be generated during the photo-ops.
Let us not be too pessimistic. Obama, who has so far not paid much attention to India may well want to do something robust and innovative in the next two years, like Clinton did after his mid-term loss. It may well turn out to be a path breaking visit by a President keen to show he is definitely a friend of India despite what the perception is. After all, both countries have embarked on a path of mutual cooperation and have a lot in common. They must build upon these commonalities to consolidate this relationship further. Diwali in India could be just the diversion and change of scenery Obama may need at this time.
This article is written by Sidharth Bhatia is a senior Indian journalist who has worked in print, broadcast and online media. He is a columnist and regular commentator on current affairs for several leading publications and on national television.
He can be contacted at sidharth01@gmail.com
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