You may not get fixed rate of interest on tax-free infra bonds   Feb 03, 2012



    February 03, 2012
Impact

In response to the massive investor response to tax-free bonds, the Government is planning to introduce floating rates on these bonds, which will be a few basis points above the prevailing rates on Government securities. Hence, in the new offering of tax-free bonds (if the proposal is cleared) the coupon rate will not be fixed for 15 years, but will be linked instead to annual rates on Government securities.

Moreover, the Union Budget is likely to outline various steps to make the bond market more attractive. A floating rate on infrastructure bonds will be quite similar to the treatment for small savings schemes including Public Provident Fund (PPF).

Currently, bond issuers’ offer fixed rates. National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) and Power Finance Corporation (PFC) raised money at 8.3% for 15-year tenures. Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) offers 20 basis points extra to retail investors compared with corporates or high net worth individuals, provided they do not trade the bonds in the secondary market.

In our opinion the floating rates on tax-free infrastructure bonds will help investors earn returns in line with the prevailing interest rates in the country. Thus when interest rate scenario is on an uptrend, investors would stand to benefit; similarly when interes rate scenario is on a downtrend, they (investors) would have to be contended with lower rates.

But we believe that linking coupon rates on infra bonds to annual rates on Government securities may make investments in these bonds less lucrative as returns from such bonds will become volatile and the very nature of fixed income instruments may not be sustained (as returns will fluctuate depending on the prevailing interest rates in the country). An investment in fixed income instruments is done keeping in mind the assurance of a fixed rate of return. Taking away this attribute from fixed income instruments may keep investors on a back foot.
Impact

In the month gone by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought aggressively in the Indian equity markets, net to the tune of staggering Rs 10,358 crore. The FII sentiment was buoyed by the recent announcement by the Government to allow Qualified Foreign Investors (QFIs) to directly invest in the Indian equity market which came in on the backdrop of significant foreign capital outflows from the domestic equity market in recent times. Furthermore, the U.S. Federal Reserve's commitment to keep interest rates low till late 2014 also boosted sentiment.

BSE Sensex gained 10.8% in the month of January 2012

(Source: ACE MF, PersonalFN Research)

Thus taking cue from the upbeat FII sentiments, the BSE Sensex rose to 17,000 levels from 15,000 levels thus, gaining 10.8% in the month of January 2012. Also, with RBI ushering liquidity by reducing the CRR by 50 basis points in its third quarter monetary policy review held on January 24, 2012, also helped the Indian equity markets to pave an up-move .

We believe that the fundamentals of the Indian economy look robust, with WPI inflation too near the comfort range of RBI, and also near to the year-end target of 7.00%. Similarly, industrial activity has revealed an uptick for the November 2011 data, after a sharp decline in October 2011. Thus with intermediate economic data being upbeat, a favourable environment for investment is experienced which is enthusing FIIs to invest in India. However, for long-term economic progress to take place in our country, the Government in power should focus on elevating FDI participation. It is noteworthy that mere increase in FII participation may not help, because they (FIIs) are like migratory birds and may flock in elsewhere when the investment sentiments in our country are grim.

Since Euro zone uncertainty still prevails, we think investors should adopt a staggered investment approach in equity asset class and may adopt the mutual fund investment route if one lacks the expertise to pick the right kind of stocks at the right price.

Remember to invest in diversified equity mutual funds which have a good track record and are from a fund house following prudent investment processes and systems. Also, the investment time horizon should be atleast 3 years to 5 years to benefit from the equity asset class.
Impact

Fidelity Mutual Fund, a renowned name in the mutual fund industry which had setup its business in India in 2004 is now in search for a buyer to sell its India asset management company better known as FIL Fund Management Private Limited (FFMPL).

The performance of its funds especially equity funds have been quite decent since their inception. The table below depicts, how various categories of mutual fund schemes from the stable of Fidelity Mutual Fund, have performed vis-a-vis to their benchmark - BSE 200.

So far, as revealed above, most of them have outperformed the returns generated by their benchmark index across time frames, while some of them have even managed to be amongst the top performers in the category too. So, then what went wrong with Fidelity which provoked them to take a drastic step.
To know that click here and read more.
Weekly Facts

Close Change %Change
BSE Sensex* 17,604.96 371.0 2.15%
Re/US$ 49.16 0.9 1.89%
Gold Rs/10g 28,115.00 845.0 -3.10%
Crude ($/barrel) 110.58 1.3 1.16%
FD Rates (1-Yr) 7.25% - 9.40%
Weekly change as on February 02, 2012,
*BSE Sensex as on February 03, 2012.
In this issue

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In an interview with the Business Standard, Mr V. Shankar – Group Executive Director of Standard Chartered Bank shared his views on the on-going Euro zone crisis and its impact on India.

Mr Shankar believes that the current crisis is different than the one that emerged in 2008. “The current one is sovereign, with a second-order impact on banks. Also, the regulations that are being imposed are actually constraining banks from lending — both in terms of capital levels and also from the point of liquidity buffers that banks need to carry. A banking crisis is relatively easier to resolve. You pump in more liquidity in the system, banks begin to lend, you inject capital in a few banks, and life moves on. But now, in Europe, banks are in trouble because they have a large percentage of their balance sheet, as required by regulation, in sovereign bonds. The countries are going through stress and as a result the bonds are getting battered. This means your capital levels are getting deflated and you have to go to the same bankrupt creditor to pick up more capital. In that sense, it is tougher because unless the West puts its economies in a more sound financial footing, the problems are unlikely to be resolved,” he explained.

As far as the impact of current crisis on India is concerned, Mr Shankar is of the opinion that India will be impacted, because Europe is a major trading partner. He added that if there is a contraction in the European economies, there will be an impact on India. “In terms of financial sector, 30-50% of dollar value of loan syndications internationally still comes from European banks. If European banks suffer from liquidity or capital, then it could impact the dollar funding for the Indian corporate sector,” he said.


Qualified Foreign Buyer: Qualified Foreign Investor (QFI) shall mean a person resident in a country that is compliant with Financial Action Task Force (FATF) standards and that is a signatory to International Organization of Securities Commission's (IOSCO’s) Multilateral Memorandum of Understanding (MMOU).

(Source: SEBI)

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"Becoming wealthy is not a matter of how much you earn, who your parents are, or what you do... it is a matter of managing your money properly."

- Noel Whittaker


  • The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) is mulling ways to introduce a new online transaction platform for mutual funds which will be integrated with depositories such as NSDL and CDSL, so that investors can hold units in demat form. It will also be plugged into the registrars who process mutual fund transactions to expedite processing.

  • The core sector growth mellowed down to 3.1% for the month of December 2011 mainly due to slackening output of crude oil, steel and natural gas. Moreover, for the period April - December 2011, the core sector growth was lower at 4.4% compared to 5.7% in the corresponding period of 2010-11 in wake of deceleration in investment

  • The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows to India for the period January – November 2011 rose 13% y-o-y to over $50 billion making the country achieve second highest growth in FDI inflows in the world during 2011. Total FDI inflows grew by 25% during Jan-Nov 2011, second only to Brazil where the growth was 48%. Most of the investments were focused on large scale manufacturing industries-automotive, industrial equipment, metals industries and on business process outsourcing projects in IT services-generating 2.16 lakh jobs in the country.

  • India Index Services & Products (IISL) , a joint venture between the nation's largest bourse National Stock Exchange and the largest rating agency CRISIL, which is owned by S&P, launched S&P CNX Nifty Dividend Index. The index will be maintained by IISL and calculated on an end-of-the-day basis, and the closing values of the index will be available on the NSE website.

  • The Finance Ministry introduced a new rating index called Comparative Rating Index for Sovereign (CRIS) to assess the performance of Indian economy in relation to the rest of the world. The new index is based on ratings by the prominent Moody's ratings and data on the GDPs of different countries given by the International Monetary Fund. The index will incorporate a new system for comparing the relative ratings of sovereign debt based on the historical evolution of their ratings over five years and the volumes of their economic activity as measured by their GDP not adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).

  • The HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for India (manufacturing sector) jumped to 57.5 in January 2012 from 54.2 in December 2011 as factory output surged the most on record increased domestic and foreign demand.
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