Can General Insurance industry go insolvent?   Mar 11, 2011

    March 11, 2011
Impact

The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority's (IRDA) issued a directive to general insurance industry for creating a provision of an additional 7,000 crore by March 31, 2011. Reacting to this directive, 35,000 crore general insurance industry expressed its view saying it could go insolvent if the directive is implemented.

In its response to the IRDA's directive, the General Insurance Council (GIC) has stated in its letter to the regulator that the estimate of their (General Insurance industry) extant liabilities on third-party motor portfolio is grossly exaggerated.

The letter has also further stated that, "In order to make the commercial vehicle third-party liability portfolio viable, IRDA should raise the regulated price for the portfolio by a minimum of 85% with effect for April 1, 2011. An increase of value lower than this would continue to jeopardise the sustenance of the portfolio and consequently the industry. Also, there should be a mechanism for annual increase of premium by aligning it to an existing index such as the consumer price index or minimum wage inflation. Going forward, the third-party liability portfolio should also be de-tariffed."

To this issue Mr. M. Ramdoss - Chairman and Managing Director of New India Assurance (the largest general insurance company in the country) said, "It would be impossible to meet the new requirement by this year-end. General insurers should be allowed to raise the premium for third-party motor portfolio. We understand that IRDA is seized of the matter and hope the regulator would find a way out of the situation."

We believe that IRDA's directive of imposing an additional provisioning is justified to make up the under provisioning in the last four years. Also from a long-term financial health sustenance point of view, this move is worth appreciating. However, before implementing any of its directives, the IRDA should consider the issues faced by general insurance companies; and anything done without assessing the present financial health of the general insurers may be detrimental to general insurer as well as the policyholders'.

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Impact

An estimated $1 trillion wealth management industry will soon get its new rules as the Government is planning to frame a comprehensive rule-book for wealth management practices by seeking inputs from Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and other financial sector regulators.

Given the sheer size of the wealth management industry, there is a greater risk of large scale frauds or manipulations. Thus, in order to keep a watch for any violations, the RBI and SEBI may be given more powers to impose strict penalties.

While the RBI and SEBI would be primarily responsible for compliance of the rules, help would be sought from other regulators, namely commodity regulator FMC, insurance watchdog IRDA and pension fund regulator PFRDA, whenever needed.

The new set of rules are being framed under the aegis of Financial Stability and Development Council (FSDC), a high-level regulatory body chaired by Finance Minister that was set up by the government in December 2010 in place of erstwhile High Level Coordination Committee on Financial Markets.

In our opinion it is a prudent step by the Government to rope in both RBI and SEBI and make them work jointly over the issue, which would make wealth managers accountable and responsible for the advice provided. However, care should be taken that the new rules do not undermine the interest of the investors as well as fund managers by making it too strict.

Impact

(Source :ACE:MF, PersonalFN Research)

Even as the world is griped with fears rising crude oil prices due to the unrest in Libya and Gulf countries, gold has been and will always remain for years to come, the safe haven investment destination for investors of all kind (from individual to Governments). And as the U.S. economy is still paper driven (due to QEII announcement), we may witness a weakening of the U.S dollar which may keep an upward bias on the prices of gold (gold prices and the U.S dollar are inversely related to each other).

The underlying fundamental attribute which makes gold a "Super Asset" class is, it does not lose its sheen during the economic or political turmoil. This has been proved time and again. As investors are taking a refuge under this precious yellow metal as the economic and political turmoil continues, gold has become bold by scaling a new historic high of 21,125 (value of 10gm of gold) in Mumbai spot markets.

In our opinion gold insures you against all economic and political turmoil. Yes sure there have been ups and down, but overall it has displayed a secular uptrend. And you as investors needn't worry, because as long as all the central banks (all over the world) resort to printing more money and scale-up their gold reserves (to hedge their economic risks), gold would continue its northward journey.

We believe that you investors should keep on allocating a part of your portfolio towards this asset class.

At PersonalFN we recommend that investors should at least hold 5% - 10% of their portfolio in gold.


Weekly Facts

Close Change %Change
BSE Sensex* 18,174.09 (312.36) -1.69%
Re/US$ 45.18 (0.1) -0.31%
Gold/10g 20,925.00 (45.0) -0.21%
Crude ($/barrel) 115.32 (0.6) -0.55%
FD Rates (1-Yr) 7.00% - 9.00%
Weekly change as on March 10, 2011
*BSE Sensex as on March 11, 2011


In this issue

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In an interview with the Economic Times, Mr. Shankar Sharma - Global Trading Strategist of First Global shared his views on reaction of equity markets post Budget 2011-12 and the fiscal deficit number.

Mr. Sharma is of the view that the markets are looking very bleak or depressing. Further explaining his stance he said, "The market is looking pretty patchy in the sense that the banks look very good and we have been bullish on them for quite a while. I was told that there was no excise duty hike as was expected in the budget on autos and, therefore, they are also having their time under the sun. Pharmas continue to look quite okay and these are pretty much the trades. Other than that, it is a very bleak landscape for Indian equities."

On India's fiscal deficit front, Mr. Sharma believes that the 4.6% fiscal deficit number (without the one-off items such as the 3G auction money) given out in the budget seems to be unrealistic. He further said, "Indian budgets are fairytales and if you want to believe fairytales, then you should go back to school. India has always grappled with deficit. We have a twin problem of the current account as well which is a bigger concern in my view because that is your external account deficit. We can always paper over local account by a variety of means, but the external account is a genuine problem. So the twin deficits do constitute a serious part of India's problem situation and if you have the crude situation getting worse, then these numbers obviously can have risk on the upside."


Kotak Gold Fund : Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund launched Kotak Gold Fund, a Gold Fund of Fund (GFoF) which invests its corpus into Kotak Gold Exchange Traded Fund (KGETF), (which in turn invests in physical gold) and its (KGF's) performance would be closely linked to the performance of the underlying fund - KGETF. To read more please Click here.


Asset Class: A group of securities that exhibit similar characteristics, behave similarly in the marketplace, and are subject to the same laws and regulations. The three main asset classes are equities (stocks), fixed-income (bonds) and cash equivalents (money market instruments)

(Source: Investopedia)


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  • Food inflation for the week ended February 26, 2011 dropped to single digit after 12 weeks at 9.52% as against 10.39% in the previous week, mainly due to a decline in the prices of vegetables. The decline was also due to a combination of the base effect, the high inflation last year, and a drop in the wholesale price-based index which fell by 0.6% over the previous week.

    Chief Economic Advisor, Mr. Kaushik Basu said, "Inflation has come down substantially and I expect it to fall quickly in another two months. Food inflation could come down to 7% by the end of March."


  • Birla Sun Life Insurance (BSLI) Company launched "BSLI Foresight Plan" - a Unit Linked Life Insurance Plan (ULIP). The BSLI Foresight Plan comes with a guaranteed option which guarantees a minimum maturity benefit to the policyholder. The ULIP also has a single premium payment option along with a 5 year premium paying term.

    According to the Chief Actuarial Officer of BSLI - Fabien Jeudy, this medium-term unit linked savings plan is apt for a volatile market providing the perfect blend of guarantee, flexibility and liquidity options.


  • According to the global credit rating agency - Fitch, India suffers from excessive regulation and tax laws, which is concern for foreign investors. Fitch Group Managing Director for Corporate Rating - Mr. Richard Hunter said, "We will certainly rank India well below Russia and China when it comes to concerns about corruption. Really big concern about India is regulation and tax treatment."


  • Maharashtra and Delhi NCR accounted for over 50% of the Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in the country during April - December 2010, according to the industry ministry's data.

    The State of Maharashtra attracted FDI worth 23,804 crore (USD 5.24 billion) and accounted for 35% of country's total FDI during April - December 2010 while Delhi's National Capital Region received 9,846 crore (USD 2.16 billion) of FDI (19% of country's FDI) during the same period.


  • The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) is mending ways to allow insurers to trade in equity futures and options contracts, which will help the companies protect returns from equity-linked products against sharp stock market declines. According to a Senior IRDA Official, "The rules will be shaped to allow insurers to use equity derivatives for hedging risks only and not for speculating."


  • Global Investment Bank Nomura launched an index for the securities / bonds - a tracking tool which investors can replicate to generate better returns - and is first of its Asia ex-Japan series. The USD 510 billion Government bond market is one of the largest in Asia, excluding Japan, stimulating demand for a bond index with good liquidity and coverage, according to Nomura.

    The index, which measures the total return performance of the Government bonds denominated in the rupee, is the first of Nomura's Asia ex-Japan series and is aimed at measuring bond market performance of individual countries.


  • In order to revamp the regulations for Non-Banking Finance Companies (NBFCs) for the first time in 15 years, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has set up a 15-member committee under former Deputy Governor Usha Thorat to address issues and complexities relating to finance companies and suggest changes to the legislative framework.


  • The working group will focus on the definition and classification of finance companies and address regulatory gaps and regulatory arbitrage. It would focus on maintaining standards of governance in the sector and appropriate approach to the supervision of NBFCs.

  • The Government is likely to withdraw the service tax imposed on healthcare services in the Union Budget for 2011-12 following a strong reaction from the public and the medical fraternity.

    Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee had proposed to levy a 5% service tax on the value of the service, for hospitals with 25 or more beds having central air conditioning and diagnostic test services.

    The Indian Medical Association has demanded withdrawal of the proposal in an open letter addressed to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. "Such efforts of the government to earn revenue from the misery of its citizens remind us of the salt tax imposed by the British regime on innocent citizens," the open letter stated.


  • SBI Life Insurance launched "Smart Wealth Assure" - a Unit Linked Life Insurance Plan (ULIP) with an aim to provide guaranteed fixed returns to the policyholder. Smart Wealth Assure guarantees at inception a pre-specified NAV applicable at the end of the 10-year term. It is single premium plan and offers policyholders optional Accidental Death benefit and partial withdrawal facility from 6th policy year onwards.


  • The Government has notified United Stock Exchange (USE) as a recognised stock exchange where trading would not be deemed as speculative transactions. As per the relevant clause of the notification, trading in derivatives are not speculative transactions. However for the purpose of claiming it to be non-speculative, the derivatives should be traded on a recognised stock exchange only.


  • The RBI has decided to introduce Interest Rate Futures (IRFs) on 91-day Treasury Bills (T-Bills) by the Government of India. The central bank has also allowed cash-settlement in Indian Rupees in futures on T-Bills.

    The final settlement price of the contract shall be based on the weighted average price or yield obtained in the weekly auction of the 91-Day Treasury Bills on the date of expiry of the contract.


  • India's GDP forecast for the fiscal year 2011-12 has been lowered by Morgan Stanley to 7.7% as it expects slower growth for domestic demand. Quite contrastingly, the Government expects (as mentioned in the Budget last week) India's economy to grow at 9%, plus or minus 0.25%, for fiscal year 2011-12.


  • The Ministry of Corporate Affairs plans to make it mandatory for companies to have at least one female independent director where a company has five or more independent directors. The proposal would be part of Companies Bill 2009, which is expected to be tabled in the current session of Parliament.


  • Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. will soon be launching a $300 million Infrastructure Fund that will invest in Indian firms that generate and transmit power, and build roads and airports. A three way partnership including Japan's largest bank Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. (SMBC) and Canada-based asset management company Brookfield Asset Management Inc., will be formed along with Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. to raise $300 million.

    The three partners will contribute 22.5% to the fund - SMBC will put in 10%; Brookfield will put in 7.5% and Kotak will invest 5%.

    The domestic portion of the fund will be managed by Kotak Investment Advisors Ltd and the offshore one by Kotak Mahindra (UK) Ltd. Of the remaining money, around $50 million will be raised from Indian investors and the rest from foreign investors. The fund will invest most of the money in green and clean-technology projects.


  • In the first month of the calendar year 2011 the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows dipped 48% to $1.04 billion from $2.04 billion in January 2010. Thus, in order to boost the FDI in India the Government is considering liberalising profit repatriation back to the country by easing rules pertaining to overseas direct investments.
        
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